Ted Bergstrom

(November 16, 2021) – According to new data from Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS®, the median sales price in the Twin Cities rose 7.9 percent from October 2020 to $340,000. Despite the housing shortage, price growth is returning to more typical levels even as we mark 10 full years of a sellers’ market.

New listings in the metro fell 11.5 percent from last October and are 1.5 percent below their 2019 level. While pending sales also dipped 10.2 percent from last year, buyer activty is up 11.9 percent from 2019. Closed sales were also down from 2020 but up from 2019. Last month also marked the Twin Cities’ 10th straight year in a metro-wide seller’s market. We’ve had under 5.0 months supply of inventory for every month of every year since November 2011. Over the last year, however, we’ve seen those absorption rates contract to 1.0 month of supply. Six months of supply is considered a balanced market. The three primary drivers of this is strong demand, weak listing activity and tight inventory levels.

“We’re still stuck in this period of apples-to-oranges year-over-year comparisons where we’re up against a uniquely strong pandemic market,” said Todd Walker, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “And as inflation concerns grow, cash downpayment savings can lose value. As rates rise, it’s possible some buyers move up their purchase timeline.” As we embrace fall and begin to cool down seasonally, listings tend to take longer to sell than in spring or summer. Half of the listings in the metro area sold in fewer than 14 days. While that pace is flat from last year, time on market is down 44.0 percent from 2019, and 14 days is a record fast pace for any October going back to 2007 and likely earlier. Sellers accepted, on average, 100.3 percent of their list price, down slightly from last October.

Inventory levels were down 16.2 percent compared to a 40.5 percent decline back in May. “Pricing has remained firm from all the demand still in the market as well as the supply squeeze,” according to Tracy Baglio, President of the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS®. “While still rising, the rate of year-over-year price growth has slowed from 16.6 percent in May to around 8.0 percent last month.”

Market activity varies by area, price point and property type. Home sales more than doubled in Loring Park and Bryant and doubled in the Folwell and Lyndale neighborhoods, but fell between 60.0 and 80.0 percent in Kenwood, Kenny and Armatage. Sales in Centerville rose 83.3 percent and 46.7 percent in Princeton but fell 71.4 percent in Wayzata and 61.3 percent in New Prague. The price range with the largest gain in demand was the $1M+ luxury sector, where sales have surged 47.3 percent over the last 12 months. Sales between $150,000 and 190,000 dropped 30.1 percent. In August, closed sales in Minneapolis reached their highest level since 2005, marking a 16-year high for housing demand in the city. Though a small share overall, condo sales rose more than any other property type over the last year.

October 2021 by the numbers compared to a year ago

• Sellers listed 6,192 properties on the market, an 11.5 percent decrease from last October
• Buyers signed 5,745 purchase agreements, down 10.2 percent (5,962 closed sales, down 16.2 percent)
• Inventory levels fell 16.2 percent to 7,657 units
• Month’s Supply of Inventory was down 17.6 percent to 1.4 months (4-6 months is balanced)
• The Median Sales Price rose 7.9 percent to $340,000
• Days on Market decreased 22.9 percent to 22 days, on average (median of 14 days, level with October 2020)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment
  • Condo sales rose 3.8 percent, while single family & townhouse sales fell 18.8 percent and 11.5 percent respectively
  • Traditional sales were down 15.5 percent; foreclosure sales were down 61.4 percent; short sales fell 45.5 percent
  • Previously owned sales dropped 14.5 percent; new construction sales decreased by 28.6 percent

  All information is according to the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS based on data from NorthstarMLS. We serve the Twin Cities 16-county metro area and western Wisconsin.

  From The Skinny Blog.

(October 19, 2021) – According to new data from Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS®, buyers closed on 16.0 percent more homes in the Twin Cities metro area last month compared to September 2019. Sales were down 5.9 percent, however, from the heightened pace of September 2020. The trend still indicates rising demand, and suggests that much of last year was an outlier and unsustainable.

Both seller and buyer activity were down from 2020 but up from 2019. While the number of signed purchase agreements fell 14.4 percent compared to September 2020, the two-year growth from 5,047 purchase contracts in 2019 represents a 10.8 percent gain. That amounts to about 5.4 percent demand growth per year, a stable and healthy rate. Buyers remain active and persistent, though perhaps a bit more cautious. But because much of 2020 and 2021 are not apples-to-apples, year-over-year comparisons will continue to be distorted.

“We are still in a period where year-over-year comparisons can be skewed,” said Todd Walker, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “We’ve gone from March 3 to March 1—still a fast pace, but agents are seeing fewer multiple offers. Bypassed inspections and appraisal gap clauses are also less prevalent.” The metro area remains a firm seller’s market with just 1.5 months supply of inventory. That’s the lowest figure for any September going back two decades. Historically, five to six months of supply is considered a balanced market that doesn’t favor one side or the other—buyer or seller.

Seller activity declined 8.6 percent over the last year but rose slightly over the last two years. This is the region’s third consecutive year of September new listings exceeding 7,000, which hasn’t happened since 2007-2009. The median sales price for the metro rallied 10.2 percent from last year to $341,750. That’s shy of the $350,000 record high that held steady in June, July and August of this year. “While pricing remains firm, we’re at a time of year where activity typically slows down for the season,” according to Tracy Baglio, President of the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS®. “Even though we don’t quite see as fiercely competitive a market as last year or earlier this year, that doesn’t mean buyers suddenly have an upper hand, especially while sellers are still accepting offers over their list price and in record time.”

Activity varies by area, price point and property type. Home sales in Farmington rose 65.9 percent and in Golden Valley by 34.3 percent. Sales in Lino Lakes and Buffalo fell 51.7 percent and 48.3 percent respectively. Signed single family contracts fell 17.5 percent while condo agreements rose 10.4 percent. Sales of homes priced below $200,000 declined 33.6 percent while sales between $400,000 and $600,000 increased 22.2 percent compared to last year. Luxury home sales over $1M increased 7.0 percent from last September but are up 71.6 percent year-to-date.

September 2021 by the numbers compared to a year ago

• Sellers listed 7,238 properties on the market, an 8.6 percent decrease from last September
• Buyers signed 5,590 purchase agreements, down 14.4 percent (6,304 closed sales, down 5.9 percent)
• Inventory levels fell 15.6 percent to 8,306 units
• Month’s Supply of Inventory was down 21.1 percent to 1.5 months (4-6 months is balanced)
• The Median Sales Price rose 10.2 percent to $341,750
• Days on Market decreased 37.8 percent to 23 days, on average (median of 12 days, down 20.0 percent)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment
  • Condo & townhome sales fell 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent respectively, while single family home sales fell 6.0 percent
  • Traditional sales were down 4.8 percent; foreclosure sales were down 60.9 percent; short sales fell 66.7 percent
  • Previously owned sales dropped 4.2 percent; new construction sales decreased by 14.4 percent

From The Skinny Blog.